Instituto Superior Técnico and the Portuguese Medical Association (OM) jointly developed an indicator that includes several relevant indicators, considering the current circumstances of public health, which allows to assess the severity of the pandemic situation and determine what measures should be taken. The work was presented during a session held this Wednesday morning, July 14.

The new “Indicator for assessing the pandemic situation and the global impact on health” is based on five partial indicators. It considers the current COVID-19 risk matrix, based on incidence and transmission rate (Rt), but also the severity of the disease, based on lethality, hospital admissions and ICU admissions.

“This indicator is not a risk matrix, it is an indicator that has a much more complex formulation, however, it is much simpler to understand”, highlighted the president of Técnico, professor Rogério Colaço. “It is an important and innovative contribution at national and international level”, he stressed.

New variables can be can be easily added whenever necessary.

According to the authors, another differentiating detail is the calculation of incidence and transmission. Contrary to what has been done so far, the proposed model uses the number of COVID-19 new cases at seven days instead of 14, and a daily Rt, almost automatic.

The indicator was jointly developed by Técnico engineers and mathematicians – professors Henrique Oliveira, Rogério Colaço, José Rui Figueira and Ana Paula Serro – the president of the OM, Dr. Miguel Guimarães, and the pulmonologist and coordinator of the COVID-19 Crisis Cabinet at the OM, Dr Filipe Froes. The tool will soon be available on Técnico and OM websites.

“The pandemic in Portugal has been dynamic”, explained Henrique Oliveira, professor at IST Department of Mathematics (DM), and for that reason it is necessary to add other variables that mark the pandemic in Portugal, and whose proportions “have not been constant”.

“The current risk matrix includes only two indicators, which gives a partial view of the problem”, stressed professor Henrique Oliveira. According to the president of the OM, the current risk matrix is “outdated” and “can’t keep pace with the pandemic evolution”.

Portugal is very close to reaching critical risk level

Miguel Guimarães explained that this is a “democratic” indicator that can be used “at home” by any citizen. “We just have to add the data released by the Directorate-General of Health – Rt, incidence, hospital admissions, ICU admissions and the number of deaths”. “This global indicator will allow us to know, in each circumstance, our risk level and relate it to the seriousness of the situation”.

The tool can be used for any location and at any scale, as long as the data on hospital admissions and ICU admissions are made available by the health authorities, thus allowing to adopt measures according to the risk level in each region.

The impact of the pandemic is measured on a scale from 0 to 180, with a colour gradient that starts in green and goes from dark red to black. The necessary measures in each risk level are associated with the respective colours.

At this moment and according to this global indicator, Portugal is very close to reaching critical risk level, which equals 100 points – “Portugal is now 92.3”, shared professor Henrique Oliveira.

Before the critical risk level, there are the residual level (10 to 40 points), the alert level (40 to 80) and the alarm level (80 to 100). Above 120 points, we reach the rupture risk level. “After the 100 points, we only have general lockdown. This is what we are trying to avoid”, said the Técnico professor.

Medical and technical skills “placed at the service of the country”

“The medical, engineering and mathematical skills of the team members were placed at the service of the country in order to combat the pandemic”, stressed the president of Técnico.

This new indicator “allows to better understand the pandemic and to take effective measures at any given time”, he added.

Dr Filipe Froes stressed the importance of vaccines, diagnostic tests and search for new variants. “Diagnostic tests in symptomatic individuals should be done in the first 12 hours”. “The genomic sequencing of variants must be closed monitored. We must pay attention to situations that provide us more information, such as: fully vaccinated people still get infected, re-infection with COVID-19 and monitorisation of immunocompromised patients, because they are often at the origin of the variants”.

“Later today we are going to send our work to the Minister of Health”, said the president of OM. “This tool will help us to continue doing what we have defended since the beginning of the pandemic, that is to flatten the COVID-19 curve”.